Drawdown recovery calculator
“After a fall of this size, what gain gets me back to where I started — and how many winning trades is that?”
A loss and its recovery are not symmetrical, and the asymmetry grows fast. This calculator states the required gain exactly, converts it into a count of winning trades at a step size you choose, and shows the whole curve so the non-linearity is visible rather than described.
Free to use, nothing to sign up for, and nothing you type here is sent anywhere — the arithmetic runs in your browser.
What it computes
required gain = (1 / (1 - d) - 1) x 100 trades needed = ln(1 / (1 - d)) / ln(1 + w), rounded up streak odds = win rate ^ streak
What you type in
| Field | What it means | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Drawdown % | The fall from the peak. | 20 |
| Gain per winning trade % | The step size for the recovery path. | 5 |
| Win rate % | Used for the streak-probability read. | 50 |
Reading the result
- The required gain, which is arithmetic rather than an estimate.
- The number of winning trades that gain takes at the step size supplied.
- The odds of stringing that many consecutive winners at the win rate supplied.
- The curve, where the asymmetry becomes obvious: 20% back needs 25%, 50% needs 100%, and a drawdown approaching 100% needs an infinite gain.
Worked example
A 20% drawdown, 5% gain per winning trade, 50% win rate.
- Required gain to break even: 25%
- Winning trades needed: 4.57, so 5
- Odds of five consecutive winners at a 50% win rate: 3.1%
- For contrast, a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain
What trips people up
- The required gain is arithmetic, not an estimate.
- The recovery path assumes each winning trade compounds on the reduced balance, which is why the trade count is not simply drawdown divided by gain.
- The streak probability assumes independent trades at a fixed win rate.
Questions
- Why does a 50% loss need a 100% gain?
- Because the gain is measured against the smaller balance. Half of an account is a smaller number than half of the original, so getting back to the start means doubling what is left.
- Does it account for position size changing during the drawdown?
- No. The recovery path uses one step size throughout. Risking a percentage of a shrinking balance changes both the path and the count, which is the difference the risk-of-ruin calculator's fixed-versus-compound switch shows.
Related calculators
These are the same calculators built into Ledger of Alpha, where they read your own trade history instead of numbers you re-type. See the full product
Keep the record these numbers come from
A free account logs the trades you size here, so the win rate and averages you type into these calculators come from your own history rather than a guess.