Trading goal calculator
“To get from here to a target balance in a given number of trades at a given risk, what edge would that actually require?”
Most goal arithmetic runs forwards and flatters itself. This runs backwards: from a target balance, a horizon and a risk share to the per-trade expectancy that combination implies — and then to the win rate that expectancy needs at several payoff ratios.
Free to use, nothing to sign up for, and nothing you type here is sent anywhere — the arithmetic runs in your browser.
What it computes
required total return = goal / start - 1 per-trade growth = (goal / start)^(1/n) - 1 required expectancy R = per-trade growth / risk fraction win rate needed at payoff b: p = (R + 1) / (b + 1)
What you type in
| Field | What it means | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Starting balance | Where the account is now. | $10,000 |
| Goal balance | The target. | $25,000 |
| Trades | How many trades to get there. | 200 |
| Risk per trade % | The share of a compounding balance risked per trade. | 1 |
Reading the result
- Required expectancy in R — the headline.
- A table converting that expectancy into the win rate it needs at several payoff ratios.
- A feasibility flag when the required expectancy exceeds 1R per trade, which is the useful failure mode: it says the goal, the horizon or the risk has to change.
Worked example
$10,000 to $25,000 in 200 trades at 1% risk.
- Required total return +150%
- Per-trade growth +0.459%
- Required expectancy 0.459R per trade — flagged feasible
- At a 1:1 payoff that needs a 73.0% win rate; at 2:1, 48.6%; at 3:1, 36.5%
The 1:1 row is usually the one that reframes the goal.
What trips people up
- This is arithmetic, not a projection of results and not a plan. It says what the numbers imply, nothing about whether the edge is attainable.
- It assumes a compounding balance and a constant risk share.
- Shortening the horizon raises the required edge sharply. That sensitivity is the point of the tool.
Questions
- Is this a projection of what my account will do?
- No. It is the reverse of one. It takes a target as given and reports the per-trade edge that target would require — a statement about the arithmetic, not about any account.
- Why does it flag some goals as unrealistic?
- When the required expectancy exceeds 1R per trade, the goal implies winning more than the amount risked on the average trade. The flag is a description of the requirement, not a judgement about the trader.
Related calculators
These are the same calculators built into Ledger of Alpha, where they read your own trade history instead of numbers you re-type. See the full product
Keep the record these numbers come from
A free account logs the trades you size here, so the win rate and averages you type into these calculators come from your own history rather than a guess.