Is this a projection of what my account will do?

No. It is the reverse of one. It takes a target as given and reports the per-trade edge that target would require — a statement about the arithmetic, not about any account.

Why does it flag some goals as unrealistic?

When the required expectancy exceeds 1R per trade, the goal implies winning more than the amount risked on the average trade. The flag is a description of the requirement, not a judgement about the trader.

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Planning

Trading goal calculator

“To get from here to a target balance in a given number of trades at a given risk, what edge would that actually require?”

Most goal arithmetic runs forwards and flatters itself. This runs backwards: from a target balance, a horizon and a risk share to the per-trade expectancy that combination implies — and then to the win rate that expectancy needs at several payoff ratios.

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Free to use, nothing to sign up for, and nothing you type here is sent anywhere — the arithmetic runs in your browser.

What it computes

required total return = goal / start - 1
per-trade growth      = (goal / start)^(1/n) - 1
required expectancy R = per-trade growth / risk fraction
win rate needed at payoff b:  p = (R + 1) / (b + 1)

What you type in

Field	What it means	Example
Starting balance	Where the account is now.	$10,000
Goal balance	The target.	$25,000
Trades	How many trades to get there.	200
Risk per trade %	The share of a compounding balance risked per trade.	1

Reading the result

Required expectancy in R — the headline.
A table converting that expectancy into the win rate it needs at several payoff ratios.
A feasibility flag when the required expectancy exceeds 1R per trade, which is the useful failure mode: it says the goal, the horizon or the risk has to change.

Worked example

$10,000 to $25,000 in 200 trades at 1% risk.

Required total return +150%
Per-trade growth +0.459%
Required expectancy 0.459R per trade — flagged feasible
At a 1:1 payoff that needs a 73.0% win rate; at 2:1, 48.6%; at 3:1, 36.5%

The 1:1 row is usually the one that reframes the goal.

What trips people up

This is arithmetic, not a projection of results and not a plan. It says what the numbers imply, nothing about whether the edge is attainable.
It assumes a compounding balance and a constant risk share.
Shortening the horizon raises the required edge sharply. That sensitivity is the point of the tool.

Questions

Is this a projection of what my account will do?: No. It is the reverse of one. It takes a target as given and reports the per-trade edge that target would require — a statement about the arithmetic, not about any account.
Why does it flag some goals as unrealistic?: When the required expectancy exceeds 1R per trade, the goal implies winning more than the amount risked on the average trade. The flag is a description of the requirement, not a judgement about the trader.

Related calculators

Compound growth calculatorIf an account grows at some rate per period, where does it end up — and what does the same account look like once returns arrive unevenly?Trading expectancy and SQN calculatorFrom a win rate and an average win and loss — what does one trade earn on average, and how tradeable is that edge given how noisy it is?Risk of ruin calculatorWith this edge and this position size, what are the odds of losing a given share of the account before the edge has a chance to show up?Stop loss and take profit calculatorFrom my entry and a stop defined however I prefer — where does the stop sit in price, and where are the 1R to 5R targets?

These are the same calculators built into Ledger of Alpha, where they read your own trade history instead of numbers you re-type. See the full product

Keep the record these numbers come from

A free account logs the trades you size here, so the win rate and averages you type into these calculators come from your own history rather than a guess.

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